Warranting Theory

A Case Study for Conceptually Modeling Alternative Exploratory Geopolitical Analysis: What if the REvil Ransomware FSB Arrest Video Was Authentic?

Abstract:

This paper introduces a novel, integrated conceptual model for exploratory geopolitical analysis. This case study reexamines a January 2022 YouTube video showing what appeared to be the arrests of REvil ransomware gang members responsible for victimizing American companies. The video appeared to have been filmed by the Federal Security Service (FSB), as proof of Moscow arresting REvil members at the request of Washington just before the war in Ukraine. While this video is believed by some within American intelligence communities to be staged, when applying signaling theory and warranting theory as foundational theories of communication reliability and content evaluation to this video, the findings suggest that the arrests in the video may have in fact been genuine and displayed an authentic Moscow gesture. This paper will conceptually model this integrated interpretation of both theories in a matrix. This practitioners’ alternative approach to exploratory geopolitical analysis may represent one of the only integrated signaling and warranting conceptual models in information warfare.

Published In

Volume 23, Issue 1

Written By

Tim Pappa

Journal of Information Warfare

The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

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The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

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