A Case Study for Conceptually Modeling Alternative Exploratory Geopolitical Analysis: What if the REvil Ransomware FSB Arrest Video Was Authentic?
Abstract:
This paper introduces a novel, integrated conceptual model for exploratory geopolitical analysis. This case study reexamines a January 2022 YouTube video showing what appeared to be the arrests of REvil ransomware gang members responsible for victimizing American companies. The video appeared to have been filmed by the Federal Security Service (FSB), as proof of Moscow arresting REvil members at the request of Washington just before the war in Ukraine. While this video is believed by some within American intelligence communities to be staged, when applying signaling theory and warranting theory as foundational theories of communication reliability and content evaluation to this video, the findings suggest that the arrests in the video may have in fact been genuine and displayed an authentic Moscow gesture. This paper will conceptually model this integrated interpretation of both theories in a matrix. This practitioners’ alternative approach to exploratory geopolitical analysis may represent one of the only integrated signaling and warranting conceptual models in information warfare.
AUTHORS
National Intelligence University
Bethesda, Maryland, United States
Tim Pappa is a certified former profiler with the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Behavioral Analysis Unit (BAU-2), specializing in cyber deception and online influence. Currently, he designs cyber deception strategy and content development in the private sector. Pappa is also a Strategy and Statecraft Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Published In
Journal of Information Warfare
The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.
Quick Links
Archive
