Minimizing Network Risk with Application to Critical Infrastructure Protection

ABSTRACT

The risk posed by natural disasters and terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure sectors such as the power grid, water supply, and telecommunication systems can be modeled by network risk. However, there is currently no definition of risk for a network. A new definition of network risk is proposed and applied to optimal allocation of a fixed budget such that network risk is minimized for two cost models: Linear and non-linear. It is shown that in both cases, risk minimization is achieved by ranking nodes and links according to their damage value and degree sequence. Furthermore, the critical nodes and links are identified as those with the highest allocation of funds.


AUTHORS

MOVES (Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation) Institute, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Waleed I. Al Mannai is a PhD Candidate at the MOVES (Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation) Institute at the Naval Postgraduate School, in Monterey, California. His research is focused on modelling risk in an arbitrary network such as critical infrastructure, and applying game theory to model the variability (randomization) in a defender’s strategy to increase invulnerability and decrease the cost of protection in a network. He received a Bachelor of Science in Aerospace Engineering from Northrop University (1987), Los Angeles, California, and a Master of Science degree in Aeronautical Engineering from the Naval Postgraduate School (1993), Monterey, California.

Academic Associate of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Ted G. Lewis is Professor of Computer Science and Academic Associate of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security at the Naval Postgraduate School, in Monterey, California. He has a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Washington State University (1971). He has written the first textbook to establish the study of critical infrastructure protection as a formal, scientific discipline. He has over 100 publications, including over 30 books.

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Keywords

C

C2
C2S
CDX
CIA
CIP
CPS

I

IA
ICS

S

SOA

X

XRY

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