Meta-Uncertainty and Its Implications for Military Communications

Abstract:

Information sharing has always been crucial to military operations. This paper considers what explanatory content should be included to empower better decision making. The paper explores the concept of meta-uncertainty, this being produced in the absence of explanatory content. The paper uses two scenarios to explore the consequences of omitting the explanation. In the scenarios, Bayesian Networks are used to model inference under uncertainty. The scenarios indicate that meta-uncertainty can negatively affect decisions. A method of coping with meta-uncertainty is suggested, this being the probabilistic modelling of possible interpretations of the shared information.


AUTHORS

Photo of Tim R. Hammond

Atlantic Research Centre Defence Research and Development Canada Dartmouth, Nova Scotia
Canada

Tim R. Hammond has worked for seventeen years in the Maritime Decision Support Section at Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic Research Centre. He has an MSc in Statistics from McGill University and a PhD in Fisheries Management from the University of Washington  His most recent work is in support of mission planning, mine countermeasures, and information warfare.

Photo of Anthony W. Isenor

Atlantic Research Centre Defence Research and Development Canada Dartmouth, Nova Scotia
Canada

Anthony W. Isenor is a scientist in the Maritime Decision Support Section at Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic Research Centre. He has an MSc in Physical Oceanography from Dalhousie University. He has led projects dealing with technologies for trusted Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), situational information for enabling awareness of northern approaches to Canada. He is a past member of the NATO research group on Semantic Interoperability (IST-075) and current member of NATO IST-168, researching adaptive information processing and distribution to support military command and control. He has extensive experience with vocabularies, geospatial information, information exchange models, maritime domain awareness, and the management of maritime information.

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Keywords

C

C2
C2S
CDX
CIA
CIP
CPS

D

DNS
DoD
DoS

I

IA
ICS

S

SOA

X

XRY

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