Wild Predator Erratic Attacks versus Dynamic Defence

ABSTRACT

Attacks by lone gunmen in public places have been experienced in schools and universities around the world. These attacks are viewed as isolated acts by individuals with little or no connection to any political or ideological agenda. Additionally, these attackers are commonly seen as having little connection to each other. However, viewed from the perspective of tactics it is argued that certain commonalities arise. Taking examples from past infamous school shootings in the U.S., a particular attack method of operations and a possible range of tactical solutions to these deadly attack methods can be identified. A methodology is proposed which views these actions by the lone gunmen as a tactical concept called erratic attacks. The attackers themselves in this methodology are viewed as wild predators. The wild predator attacker can only be defeated with one of two defences. These are a denial of space, such as boxing, and/or a dynamic defence. These approaches are designed to overcome the significant information advantages which an erratic attacker can have, namely deception advantages. This article proposes to discuss this methodology in terms of terrorist ‘tactics, techniques, and procedures’ (TTPs).


AUTHORS

Photo of Christopher Flaherty

Terrorism Research Centre, Washington DC

Christopher Flaherty is a Senior Research Associate at the Terrorism Research Center in Washington, D.C. He has a PhD in Economic Relations from the University of Melbourne with a focus on networking. Following this, he pursued a career in defence and security research in the Australian Department of Defence. Dr. Flaherty has been based in London since 2008. A Senior Research Associate of the Terrorism Research Center (TRC), he regularly contributes to its current publications. He is also the co-primary author of Body Cavity Bombers: The New Martyrs (iUniverse 2013). Two essays of his from 2003 and 2010 were reprinted in the TRC book: Fifth Dimensional Operations (iUniverse 2014). He is also the author of Australian Manoeuvrist Strategy (Seaview Press 1996). He has been an active contributor on security, terrorism early warning, and related international intelligence issues, including tactics, techniques, and procedures analysis, published in the TRC report ‘Dangerous Minds’ (2012). He also has a long-term involvement in the microsimulation and risk modelling group.

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Keywords

C

C2
C2S
CDX
CIA
CIP
CPS

I

IA
ICS

S

SOA

X

XRY

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